← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during a raid in Gaza City. BBC News · 1 Sep 2026Israeli fire kills three in Gaza City during reported raid, medics sayאבו עלי אקספרס · 1 Sep 2026In a joint operation by the IDF and the Shin Bet: Security forces arrested the head of internal security of the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Stripאבו עלי אקספרס · 1 Sep 2026Prime Minister Netanyahu referred earlier to the operation and noted that this is one of the most senior Hamas leaders, who was responsible for hiding and moving hostages, for hiding senior Hamas officials, and for building up the organization’s strength and attempts to restore the terror organization’s capabilities.
- Israeli airstrikes targeted Mansouri in southern Lebanon, forcing displaced residents to flee. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 1 Sep 2026Mansouri rocked by Israeli strikes as residents flee again
- Israeli soldiers shot four Palestinians near Ramallah during a settler raid. Haaretz latest headlines · 31 Aug 2026IDF soldiers guard West Bank settler raid, shoot four Palestinians, reports say
- Israel established two settlements in Palestinian areas of the West Bank. Haaretz latest headlines · 1 Sep 2026Israel establishes two settlements deep in Palestinian areas of West Bank
- The Israeli Ministry of Defense launched the submarine INS Dragon from Germany. אבו עלי אקספרס · 1 Sep 2026Ministry of Defense: The submarine INS “Dragon” is on its way from Germany to Israel
Gaza Targeted Operations
Israeli special forces and Shin Bet agents conducted an infiltration raid in Gaza City's Rimal neighborhood, capturing Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid. Supporting Israeli air and artillery strikes aimed at covering the raid hit nearby residential zones and damaged a desalination plant in Sheikh Radwan, disrupting drinking water access for displaced civilians. BBC News · 1 Sep 2026Israeli fire kills three in Gaza City during reported raid, medics sayאבו עלי אקספרס · 1 Sep 2026In a joint operation by the IDF and the Shin Bet: Security forces arrested the head of internal security of the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Stripאבו עלי אקספרס · 1 Sep 2026Prime Minister Netanyahu referred earlier to the operation and noted that this is one of the most senior Hamas leaders, who was responsible for hiding and moving hostages, for hiding senior Hamas officials, and for building up the organization’s strength and attempts to restore the terror organization’s capabilities.
Southern Lebanon Border Strikes
Israeli artillery and air units struck the coastal town of Mansouri, conducting demolitions that forced displaced Lebanese residents to evacuate the area again. Intelligence assessments from the Institute for the Study of War reported that Hezbollah is building FPV drone capabilities aimed at targeting Israeli personnel along the Blue Line. understandingwar.org · 31 Aug 2026Hezbollahs Fpv Drones Pose an Acute Challenge to IsraelAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 1 Sep 2026Mansouri rocked by Israeli strikes as residents flee again
West Bank Territorial Escalation
Israel established two settlements deep within Palestinian-populated areas of the West Bank, drawing official condemnation from the United Kingdom. Israeli soldiers shot four Palestinians near Ramallah during a settler raid, while Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter publicly criticized the government for failing to curb settler violence. Haaretz latest headlines · 31 Aug 2026IDF soldiers guard West Bank settler raid, shoot four Palestinians, reports sayHaaretz latest headlines · 1 Sep 2026Israel's U.S. envoy Yechiel Leiter says government is failing to stop Jewish terrorism in West BankHaaretz latest headlines · 1 Sep 2026Israel establishes two settlements deep in Palestinian areas of West Bank
Naval Posture and Airspace Alerts
The Israeli Ministry of Defense launched its third Dolphin AIP-class submarine, INS Dragon, from Kiel, Germany to boost naval capacity amid defense establishment concerns regarding potential maritime blockades. Simultaneously, the United States Embassy in Israel issued a security advisory warning American citizens of potential Middle East airspace closures and flight cancellations. אבו עלי אקספרס · 1 Sep 2026The U.S. Embassy in Israel issues a warning to its citizens:Haaretz latest headlines · 1 Sep 2026Israeli officials fear a naval blockade – and a depleted Navy may not withstand itאבו עלי אקספרס · 1 Sep 2026Ministry of Defense: The submarine INS “Dragon” is on its way from Germany to Israel
Assessment
Targeted Israeli operations in Gaza, persistent bombardments in southern Lebanon, and expanding settlement activity in the West Bank sustain high posture across all operational fronts.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
4 more
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli forces conduct airstrikes in southern Lebanon as Lebanese army expands operations.
The IDF carried out strikes against targets in southern Lebanon while the Lebanese Armed Forces continued operating in designated pilot zones. The strikes occurred as international discussions considered the UK and Italy to monitor Hezbollah disarmament.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.