← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense submitted its 2026 military report detailing People's Liberation Army landing capabilities to the Legislative Yuan. Taipei Times · 2 Sep 2026MND report flags PLA efforts to boost Taiwan landing capabilities
- The U.S. Navy conducted a successful live-fire trial of the land-based Harpoon Coastal Defense System destined for Taiwan's military. Naval News · 28 Aug 2026Taiwan-Bound Harpoon Coastal Defense System Scores Direct Hit in US Navy Test
- Researchers at Taiwan's Institute for National Defence and Security Research warned that People's Liberation Army doctrine prioritizes multi-domain systems destruction warfare. News - South China Morning Post · 30 Aug 2026PLA shift to systems warfare means Taiwan’s defences need to change: experts
- Labor unions representing Micron Technology workers in Taoyuan and Taichung threatened strike action against the U.S. chipmaker over bonus payouts. Taipei Times · 2 Sep 2026Micron’s Taiwan unions threaten strike over bonus dispute
- Taiwan law enforcement agencies cleared a public spy complaint after investigating simplified Chinese text displayed on a laptop in Taipei. News - South China Morning Post · 31 Aug 2026The laptop, the social media user and the false alarm in Taiwan over a Beijing ‘spy’
PLA Amphibious Assault Assessment
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense submitted its 2026 report on China's military power to the Legislative Yuan, emphasizing that the People's Liberation Army Ground Force continues prioritizing joint island-landing capabilities. Institute for National Defense and Security Research analyst Chieh Chung stated that these force development priorities appear unaffected by recent leadership purges within the Central Military Commission. Taipei Times · 2 Sep 2026MND report flags PLA efforts to boost Taiwan landing capabilities
Harpoon Defense System Integration
The U.S. Navy executed a successful live-fire test of the land-based Harpoon Coastal Defense System ahead of scheduled delivery to Taiwan. The mobile anti-ship missile system is designated to bolster coastal defense capabilities against potential People's Liberation Army maritime operations. Naval News · 28 Aug 2026Taiwan-Bound Harpoon Coastal Defense System Scores Direct Hit in US Navy Test
Systems Destruction Warfare Doctrine
Research by Chen Chia-sheng at Taiwan's Institute for National Defence and Security Research highlighted People's Liberation Army operational doctrine focusing on multi-domain systems destruction warfare. The framework combines artificial intelligence, communications networks, command nodes, and logistics to disable Taiwan's integrated defense network rather than engaging solely in platform-versus-platform combat. News - South China Morning Post · 30 Aug 2026PLA shift to systems warfare means Taiwan’s defences need to change: experts
Domestic Security and Tech Supply
Public anxiety regarding cross-Strait intelligence gathering prompted a false spy alarm on the Taipei metro over simplified Chinese laptop text, leading to inquiries by the Mainland Affairs Council and Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau. Concurrently, labor unions representing nearly 10,000 Micron Technology employees in Taoyuan and Taichung voted to authorize strike action over a performance bonus dispute. Taipei Times · 2 Sep 2026Micron’s Taiwan unions threaten strike over bonus disputeNews - South China Morning Post · 31 Aug 2026The laptop, the social media user and the false alarm in Taiwan over a Beijing ‘spy’
Assessment
Updated Taiwanese defense evaluations and ongoing U.S. weapons system integrations reflect structured long-term military preparation across the Taiwan Strait without indications of imminent conflict.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
2 more
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.