← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian missile and drone strikes killed 12 people in Kyiv, including six Ukrainian Railways workers at a locomotive depot. World news | The Guardian · 1 Sep 2026Russia kills at least 12 on sixth night of drone attacks on KyivWorld news | The Guardian · 1 Sep 2026Russia targets Ukraine’s rail network as war enters deadly new phase
- Ukrainian drones struck the Baltic port of Ust-Luga in Russia's Leningrad Oblast, causing a fire at the oil terminal. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 1 Sep 2026Ukrainian drones damage Russia’s Ust-Luga port, governor saysKyiv Post · 1 Sep 2026Ukraine Hits Russia’s Biggest Baltic Port as 516 Drones Reportedly Swarm Russian Skies
- Germany officially attributed an August explosive drone attack against a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane at Leipzig Airport to Russian intelligence. Ukrainska Pravda · 1 Sep 2026Germany announces response to Russia following Leipzig drone incidentThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 1 Sep 2026Germany officially blames Russia for drone attack attempt at Leipzig airport
- Russian drones struck the Orlivka ferry terminal on Ukraine's border with Romania, halting international border crossing operations. Kyiv Post · 1 Sep 2026Russia’s Overnight Attack Hits Romania Border Crossing, Targets Rescuers in ZaporizhzhiaUkrinform · 1 Sep 2026Russia attacks Orlivka international border crossing with Romania for fourth time – SBGS
- Estonian military units reported Ukrainian drones crossed into Estonian airspace during an aerial attack on western Russia. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 1 Sep 2026Estonia, Romania report drone incursions amid Russian and Ukrainian aerial attacksUkrinform · 1 Sep 2026Estonia's defense minister says Ukrainian drones entered country's airspace again
Kyiv Railway Infrastructure Strikes
Russian forces launched ballistic missiles and drones against Kyiv for a sixth consecutive night, killing 12 people including six Ukrzaliznytsia employees at a locomotive depot. The strikes targeted Ukraine's national rail network to disrupt transport infrastructure and urban supply lines. Ukrainian Air Force Command reported intercepting multiple Kalibr cruise missiles while noting a deficit of US-supplied Patriot interceptors against high-speed jet drones and ballistic missiles. World news | The Guardian · 1 Sep 2026Russia kills at least 12 on sixth night of drone attacks on KyivThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 1 Sep 2026Kyiv, Odesa hardest hit in overnight Russian attack as 16 killed, 54 injured across UkraineWorld news | The Guardian · 1 Sep 2026Russia targets Ukraine’s rail network as war enters deadly new phase
Baltic Sea Port Interdiction
Ukrainian long-range drones struck Russia's Ust-Luga port in Leningrad Oblast, igniting a fire at the oil terminal that generates state budget revenue funding Russia's military campaign. Russian regional governor Alexander Drozdenko reported that Russian air defense units intercepted 52 drones over the region during the attack. Ukrainian forces targeted the Baltic maritime export hub to impair Russian military supply chains and energy revenues. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 1 Sep 2026Ukrainian drones damage Russia’s Ust-Luga port, governor saysKyiv Post · 1 Sep 2026Ukraine Hits Russia’s Biggest Baltic Port as 516 Drones Reportedly Swarm Russian Skies
Leipzig Airport Sabotage Attribution
German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt formally attributed an August explosive drone operation targeting a Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport to Russian intelligence services. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul announced the closure of the Russian Consulate General in Bonn and the Russian House in Berlin, alongside summonses for the Russian ambassador and expanded EU sanctions. The German government cited physical evidence and intelligence corroboration matching Russian state sabotage patterns across Europe. Ukrainska Pravda · 1 Sep 2026Germany announces response to Russia following Leipzig drone incidentThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 1 Sep 2026Germany officially blames Russia for drone attack attempt at Leipzig airport
NATO Frontier Airspace Incursions
Estonian Air Force Commander Brigadier General Riivo Valge confirmed that a Ukrainian drone entered Estonian airspace near Narva during operations directed at western Russian targets, prompting NATO to scramble Turkish fighter jets from Amari Air Base. Russian drone strikes simultaneously hit the Orlivka ferry terminal on Ukraine's border with Romania, damaging administrative structures and forcing the suspension of Danube border traffic. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 1 Sep 2026Estonia, Romania report drone incursions amid Russian and Ukrainian aerial attacksKyiv Post · 1 Sep 2026Russia’s Overnight Attack Hits Romania Border Crossing, Targets Rescuers in ZaporizhzhiaUkrinform · 1 Sep 2026Estonia's defense minister says Ukrainian drones entered country's airspace again
Assessment
High-intensity interstate war continues as Russian forces target Ukrainian municipal and transport infrastructure while Ukrainian long-range strikes hit Russian energy export terminals, alongside diplomatic countermeasures against Russian hybrid operations inside NATO territory.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.