← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- U.S. Central Command conducted airstrikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions in southern Iran. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 1 Sep 2026US launches new strikes against Iran as war escalatesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026US airstrikes target Iran's Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island
- Iranian forces launched eight ballistic missiles targeting a U.S. military facility in Jordan. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026Trump says latest strikes on Iran are 'justified,' warns Tehran against retaliationAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026US airstrikes target Iran's Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island
- Unattributed missile attacks struck the Saudi-operated crude carrier Sidr near the Strait of Hormuz. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026Oil jumps over 2% as tanker attacks deepen US-Iran tensions
- Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaders issued the Bishkek Declaration condemning U.S. military operations in Iran. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 1 Sep 2026SCO slams attacks, sanctions on Iran: Key takeaways from Bishkek summitTehran Times · 1 Sep 2026SCO slams US-Israeli aggression, Ayatollah Khamenei’s assassination and sanctions on Iran
- The International Atomic Energy Agency reported continued lack of access to inspect Iranian nuclear material. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026IAEA reports progress in Syria investigation, none in Iran
U.S.-Iran Direct Hostilities
U.S. Central Command expanded airstrikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps assets in Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, and Qeshm Island, citing IRGC attempts to deploy rocket-borne sea mines. Iranian forces retaliated with eight missiles fired at a U.S. military facility in Jordan. U.S. President Donald Trump warned of larger strikes if Tehran continues attacks, confirming the breakdown of the August operational lull. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026Trump says latest strikes on Iran are 'justified,' warns Tehran against retaliationAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 1 Sep 2026US launches new strikes against Iran as war escalatesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026US airstrikes target Iran's Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island
Strait of Hormuz Maritime Attacks
Explosions damaged the Saudi-operated supertanker Sidr and South Korean-operated Senegal Prosperity near Oman, driving Brent crude prices above $92 per barrel. U.S. naval enforcement has prevented Iranian crude shipments to China for seven weeks, prompting Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf to threaten military responses to the American blockade. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026Blockade succeeds where sanctions failed as Iran oil exports stallAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026Oil jumps over 2% as tanker attacks deepen US-Iran tensionsTehran Times · 1 Sep 2026Qalibaf: Iran will respond militarily if US intensifies blockade
Iranian Economic and Nuclear Strains
Domestic fuel shortages triggered long queues at Iranian petrol stations following infrastructure damage and U.S. Treasury enforcement under Operation Economic Outcast. Concurrently, a confidential International Atomic Energy Agency report confirmed no progress in restoring safeguards access to verify Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles. World | Deutsche Welle · 1 Sep 2026War and sanctions deepen Iran's fuel crisisAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026IAEA reports progress in Syria investigation, none in IranWorld news | The Guardian · 31 Aug 2026Iran’s economy in crisis as US launches new sanctions campaign
SCO Diplomatic Alignment
Leaders at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek issued a joint statement denouncing U.S. and Israeli military attacks on Iran as international law violations. Chinese President Xi Jinping subsequently traveled to Egypt to manage trade risks arising from potential U.S. secondary sanctions on institutions dealing with Tehran. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 1 Sep 2026SCO slams attacks, sanctions on Iran: Key takeaways from Bishkek summitAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 1 Sep 2026China's Xi arrives in Egypt as US sanctions threat looms over Iran linksTehran Times · 1 Sep 2026SCO slams US-Israeli aggression, Ayatollah Khamenei’s assassination and sanctions on Iran
Assessment
The resumption of bilateral direct strikes across southern Iran and Jordan, combined with renewed tanker targeting in Hormuz, elevates operational risk to commercial maritime transport and regional military infrastructure.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.