← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that water resources must never be weaponised. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 1 Sep 2026SCO Summit: Pakistan PM Sharif says water must never be weaponised
- India rejected the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling regarding the Indus Waters Treaty, citing the court's lack of legal jurisdiction. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 31 Aug 2026Citing lack of jurisdiction, India rejects Hague court’s Indus Waters Treaty ruling
- The Permanent Court of Arbitration ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. Dawn - Home · 31 Aug 2026Hague court orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty, suspend work on its hydropower project
- Foreign ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey agreed to establish a permanent secretariat in Saudi Arabia for the Makkah Defence Alliance. Dawn - Home · 31 Aug 2026Makkah Defence Alliance to be institutionalised, Pakistan to head secretariat for 3 years: FO
- Russia offered to supply S-500 air defence systems and Su-57 fighter jets to strengthen Indian military capabilities. NDTV News Search Records Found 1000 · 1 Sep 2026S-500, Su-57 At Heart Of Putin's Big India Defence Pitch
Indus Waters Dispute
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to observe the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a hydropower facility in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir. India's Ministry of External Affairs formally rejected the ruling, asserting that the body was illegally constituted by the World Bank and lacks legal jurisdiction over the treaty. Speaking at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned against the weaponisation of shared water resources, highlighting ongoing friction over India holding the bilateral accord in abeyance. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 1 Sep 2026SCO Summit: Pakistan PM Sharif says water must never be weaponisedDawn - Home · 31 Aug 2026Hague court orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty, suspend work on its hydropower projectIndia Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 31 Aug 2026Citing lack of jurisdiction, India rejects Hague court’s Indus Waters Treaty ruling
Makkah Defence Secretariat
Delegates from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey finalized operational structures for the Makkah Defence Alliance during meetings in Istanbul. The agreement establishes a permanent secretariat in Saudi Arabia to oversee trilateral defence cooperation and mutual security commitments, with Pakistan designated to lead the secretariat for an initial three-year term. Dawn - Home · 31 Aug 2026Makkah Defence Alliance to be institutionalised, Pakistan to head secretariat for 3 years: FOWorld News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 31 Aug 2026Pakistan’s Dar, Munir arrive in Turkiye ahead of first Makkah defence pact meetingWorld News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 30 Aug 2026Turkish, Saudi, Pakistani ministers to hold first defence pact meeting
Russian Defence Procurement Pitch
Moscow launched a formal sales push to supply India with S-500 air defence missile systems and Su-57 stealth fighter aircraft. The initiative targets India's immediate requirements to upgrade its integrated air defence network and address shortfalls in combat squadron strength following recent regional military tensions. NDTV News Search Records Found 1000 · 1 Sep 2026S-500, Su-57 At Heart Of Putin's Big India Defence Pitch
Assessment
Bilateral relations remain anchored in the DGMO cessation of hostilities established in May 2025, while legal and diplomatic disputes over river rights continue to escalate across international forums.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
- 2026-08-12
India adds Attari crossing to e-visa network while tightening border infrastructure personnel rules.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 11/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 11/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.