← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Israeli mounted forces entered the southern Lebanese village of Deir Mimas to search residential properties. News from Israel · 20 Sep 2026Report in Lebanon: IDF forces entered the village of Deir Mimas and searched homes
- Israeli forces demolished a Syrian army post near Jandal Fortress on Mount Hermon near the Syria-Lebanon border. אבו עלי אקספרס · 20 Sep 2026Syrian sources report that the IDF recently blew up a post that belonged to Assad’s army in the area of Jandal Fortress on Mount Hermon, near the Syria-Lebanon border (defined as part of the Damascus…
- Israeli military attacks across Gaza killed three Palestinians, including a child in the al-Mawasi safe zone. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 21 Sep 2026Israeli attacks on Gaza kill three, including a child
- Israeli Duvdevan forces arrested a Palestinian gunman in Biddu following a fatal shooting attack near Neve Tzuf. אבו עלי אקספרס · 20 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: Duvdevan forces, guided by the Shin Bet, arrested the terrorist who carried out the shooting attack in BinyaminJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 20 Sep 2026IDF prepares West Bank mass-arrest operation, demolition of Neveh Tzuf terrorist’s home
- Israeli soldiers killed a Palestinian driver during an attempted car-ramming attack at a checkpoint near Jenin. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 20 Sep 2026IDF kills terrorist, thwarts attempted car-ramming attack against soldiers at West Bank checkpointAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 20 Sep 2026Israeli forces kill Palestinian near Jenin in occupied West Bank
Southern Lebanon Incursions
Israeli mounted units entered the southern Lebanese village of Deir Mimas to conduct property searches, maintaining ground operations north of the border. In the Mount Hermon sector near the Syrian-Lebanese border, Israeli forces demolished a Syrian army position near Jandal Fortress. These localized ground actions reflect ongoing perimeter control. אבו עלי אקספרס · 20 Sep 2026Syrian sources report that the IDF recently blew up a post that belonged to Assad’s army in the area of Jandal Fortress on Mount Hermon, near the Syria-Lebanon border (defined as part of the Damascus…News from Israel · 20 Sep 2026Report in Lebanon: IDF forces entered the village of Deir Mimas and searched homes
Gaza Targeted Operations
Israeli airstrikes and ground fire killed three Palestinians in Gaza, including a child in the al-Mawasi safe zone. The strikes injured nine other residents in Bureij and Khan Younis. The Israel Defense Forces stated that a strike in Jabaliya killed Basir Al-Barsh, whom military officials identified as a Hamas Nukhba commander. These operations reflect continued localized targeting of militant figures. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 21 Sep 2026Israeli attacks on Gaza kill three, including a childאבו עלי אקספרס · 20 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: The IDF reports that Batsir Al-Barsh, son of Dr. Munir Al-Barsh, Director General of the Hamas Ministry of Health in Gaza, was a Nukhba commander in the Hamas military wing.News from Israel · 20 Sep 2026IDF eliminates terrorists who participated in October 7th, advanced attacks against IDF troops
West Bank Security Operations
Israeli forces detained fifty-three Palestinians in Biddu after apprehending a suspect accused of fatally shooting Israeli civilian Netanel Shukrun near Neve Tzuf. Israeli soldiers killed a driver who attempted a car-ramming attack at a checkpoint near Jenin. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir placed military units on high alert and deployed additional troops across the West Bank. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 21 Sep 2026Israeli forces arrest dozens of Palestinians in occupied West Bank raidאבו עלי אקספרס · 20 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: Duvdevan forces, guided by the Shin Bet, arrested the terrorist who carried out the shooting attack in BinyaminNews from Israel · 20 Sep 2026Chief of Staff after terror attack: IDF on high alert
Assessment
Cross-border ground searches, targeted strikes in Gaza, and reinforced West Bank operations sustain high operational tension within established boundaries.
- 2026-09-15
Israel establishes kill zone along southern Lebanon front
The Israeli Northern Command established a kill zone separating Israeli-controlled territory from Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
4 more
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73.7/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.