← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- An unknown projectile struck a commercial tanker entering the Strait of Hormuz, injuring two crew members, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations. © Vahid Salemi, AP · 21 Sep 2026Projectile hits tanker as it enters the Strait of Hormuz
- Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned that Iranian forces will target United States bases across the Middle East if Washington resumes strikes. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 21 Sep 2026Iran’s military says US preparing to resume strikesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 20 Sep 2026Iran warns against new escalation by US and allies
- Iranian authorities launched a Basij militia mobilization drive in Tehran, registering over 600,000 recruits for military training. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 20 Sep 2026What’s behind Iranian authorities’ push for a mass mobilisation campaign?
- The United States announced measures to restrict Iranian airlines from international operations starting September 23. Iran International · 21 Sep 2026US targets Iranian airlines, Iran threatens wider war
- Iranian judiciary officials closed the French Language Centre in Tehran over alleged violations of diplomatic conventions. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 20 Sep 2026France to summon Iran envoy after language centre closure in Tehran
Escalation Warnings and Force Posture
Statements from United States President Donald Trump regarding potential military action coincided with explicit Iranian warnings to target United States bases throughout the Middle East if bombing resumes. To reinforce domestic security and signal resolve, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps registered over 600,000 volunteers in Tehran under an expanded Basij militia mobilization campaign. World news | The Guardian · 20 Sep 2026Middle East braces for more violence as Iran claims US is planning to renew bombing campaignAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 21 Sep 2026Iran’s military says US preparing to resume strikesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 20 Sep 2026Iran warns against new escalation by US and allies
Strait of Hormuz Maritime Incidents
A projectile hit a commercial tanker entering the Strait of Hormuz, injuring two crew members and demonstrating ongoing operational risks in the strategic waterway. Tanker traffic through the strait fell to 12 vessels over the weekend compared to 35 the previous week, while 29 crude tankers remain trapped inside the passage. © Vahid Salemi, AP · 21 Sep 2026Projectile hits tanker as it enters the Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 21 Sep 2026How oil, gas losses have shrunk Iran’s GDP by 10 percent during warAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 20 Sep 2026Vessels trickle through Strait of Hormuz as Mideast tension persists
Qatari Diplomatic Track
Qatari mediators actively exchanged proposals between Washington and Tehran in an effort to halt further military escalation. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei reiterated demands for a complete end to United States military operations and the naval blockade as prerequisites for formal negotiations. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 21 Sep 2026Iran’s military says US preparing to resume strikesAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 20 Sep 2026Qatar says it is working to revive Iran-US talksAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 20 Sep 2026Qatar PM urges Gulf security framework with Iran
Aviation Restrictions and Diplomatic Friction
The United States moved to bar Iranian airlines from international transit beginning September 23, expanding economic pressure beyond the energy sector. Meanwhile, Iranian authorities closed the French Language Centre in Tehran, prompting Paris to announce the summoning of Iran's ambassador. Iran International · 21 Sep 2026US targets Iranian airlines, Iran threatens wider warTehran Times · 20 Sep 2026China slams ‘unilateral’ US sanctions law targeting Russia, IranAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 20 Sep 2026France to summon Iran envoy after language centre closure in Tehran
Assessment
Mutual preparations for renewed direct strikes alongside continued maritime attacks keep the theater at critical operational risk despite active Qatari mediation.
- 2026-09-18
Russia and China veto UN resolution extending Iran sanctions monitoring
Russia and China vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution to extend independent monitoring of international sanctions on Iran.
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
4 more
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 76.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 76.7/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.