← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- The Pakistani Air Force conducted cross-border airstrikes targeting suspected militant hideouts in Afghanistan's Kunar province. FDD's Long War Journal · 21 Sep 2026Pakistan conducts airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan in retaliation for terrorist attacksDawn - Home · 21 Sep 2026Pakistan carries out 'calibrated’ airstrikes against terrorist targets in border region with AfghanistanTimes of India · 21 Sep 2026Pakistan airstrike kills 3 in Afghanistan, Taliban warns of ‘crushing response’
- Pakistani military forces freed 23 hostages during a tactical operation along the N-25 highway in Balochistan. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 20 Sep 2026Pakistani forces kill 5 militants and free 23 hostages in operation in the southwestWorld News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 20 Sep 2026Pakistan forces kill five terrorists, rescue 23 abductees in Balochistan
- Cochin Shipyard initiated keel laying for the Indian Navy's inaugural Next Generation Missile Vessel. Naval News · 20 Sep 2026Cochin Shipyard Lays Keel for Indian Navy’s First NGMV
- Indian Army personnel integrated specialized Rampur Hound K9 units into joint drills with United States forces. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 20 Sep 2026Rampur Hounds join India-U.S. troops for specialised drills at Yudh Abhyas
- Islamabad police forces deployed 22,000 personnel to secure federal territory against announced political protest marches. Dawn - Home · 21 Sep 2026Over 22,000 security personnel to be deployed in Islamabad amid protest calls
Afghan Border Escalation
The Pakistani Air Force conducted cross-border airstrikes in Afghanistan's Kunar province in response to the suicide bombing in Kohat. Pakistani officials claimed 28 militants were killed in three precision strikes, while Afghan Taliban officials reported three civilian deaths and threatened retaliation. FDD's Long War Journal · 21 Sep 2026Pakistan conducts airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan in retaliation for terrorist attacksDawn - Home · 21 Sep 2026Pakistan carries out 'calibrated’ airstrikes against terrorist targets in border region with AfghanistanAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 21 Sep 2026Afghanistan says three killed in Pakistani air attacks
Balochistan Counter-Militancy
Pakistani military forces executed an operation near Kalat along the N-25 highway in Balochistan province. Security forces killed five insurgents and rescued 23 abducted civilians from an illegal check post. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 20 Sep 2026Pakistani forces kill 5 militants and free 23 hostages in operation in the southwestWorld News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 20 Sep 2026Pakistan forces kill five terrorists, rescue 23 abductees in Balochistan
Naval Procurement Programs
Cochin Shipyard laid the keel for the Indian Navy's first Next Generation Missile Vessel in Kochi. The stealth corvette program forms part of New Delhi's capital acquisition plan for modernizing domestic warship manufacturing. Naval News · 20 Sep 2026Cochin Shipyard Lays Keel for Indian Navy’s First NGMVTimes of India · 21 Sep 2026Beyond 'Make in India': How India is trying to build a military it can truly call its ownTimes of India · 20 Sep 2026India's defence industry takes off: The numbers explained
Indo-US Military Integration
Indian Army troops integrated indigenous Rampur Hound canine units into tactical drills with United States Army personnel during Exercise Yudh Abhyas. The bilateral maneuvers focus on electronic warfare and counter-unmanned aerial systems in Rajasthan. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 20 Sep 2026Rampur Hounds join India-U.S. troops for specialised drills at Yudh Abhyas
US Sanctions Pressure
Enactment of United States legislation enabling 100 percent tariffs on buyers of Russian crude oil prompted responses from Indian political leaders. Indian policy remains focused on diversifying petroleum trade deals to safeguard national energy imports. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 21 Sep 2026100% U.S. tariff threat: Can India’s new trade deals reduce its dependence on America?NDTV News Search Records Found 1000 · 21 Sep 2026Opinion: Opinion | 'Blackmail' Diplomacy: Why India Can't Be A Pawn In US' War On RussiaIndia Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 20 Sep 2026Trump’s tariff decision can hurt energy security, trade, economy of India: Congress
Assessment
Direct kinetic engagements between Indian and Pakistani armed forces along the Line of Control remain halted under the May 2025 ceasefire agreement.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 16.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 16.7/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.