← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- The Chinese Communist Party expelled former Central Military Commission vice-chairman Zhang Youxia and former Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the party and military. News - South China Morning Post · 21 Sep 2026Former top PLA generals expelled from Communist Party for factionalism and disloyalty
- Royal New Zealand Navy frigate HMNZS Te Mana and replenishment tanker HMNZS Aotearoa transited the Taiwan Strait. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 21 Sep 2026New Zealand naval ships transit contested Taiwan Strait
- The United States government is reportedly considering delaying major arms sales to Taiwan until after November international summits. Taipei Times · 21 Sep 2026US might postpone major Taiwan arms sales: reportNews - South China Morning Post · 18 Sep 2026US weighs delaying Taiwan arms sales until after Apec and G20 summits
- Taiwan's armed forces conducted live-fire military exercises using missiles and attack drones ahead of high-level US-China talks. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 19 Sep 2026Taiwan flexes military capabilities ahead of Trump-Xi talks
- Taiwanese Labour Minister Hung Sun-han traveled to Nanjing to attend an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ministerial meeting. News - South China Morning Post · 19 Sep 2026How will Beijing receive most senior Taiwan official to attend Apec events this year?
High-Level Bilateral Diplomacy
The United States administration under President Donald Trump is evaluating options to postpone major arms sales notifications to Taiwan ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to Washington. Officials in Beijing requested the delay prior to planned bilateral talks and subsequent international summits, creating policy disagreements in Washington over balancing diplomatic negotiations with statutory deterrence requirements under the Taiwan Relations Act. Taipei Times · 21 Sep 2026US might postpone major Taiwan arms sales: reportNews - South China Morning Post · 18 Sep 2026US weighs delaying Taiwan arms sales until after Apec and G20 summits
Cross-Strait Official Interactions
Taiwanese Labour Minister Hung Sun-han traveled to Nanjing for an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ministerial meeting, marking the highest-level visit to mainland China by a cabinet official under President Lai Ching-te. While providing a functional channel during ongoing political suspension, direct institutional communication between Beijing and Taipei remains stalled over political preconditions. News - South China Morning Post · 19 Sep 2026How will Beijing receive most senior Taiwan official to attend Apec events this year?
Taiwan Defense Readiness
Taiwan staged live-fire drills involving missiles and loitering attack drones to demonstrate defensive capabilities ahead of the US-China presidential summit. The maneuvers aim to reinforce Taiwan's self-defense posture while Washington deliberates on the timing of future defense equipment approvals. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 19 Sep 2026Taiwan flexes military capabilities ahead of Trump-Xi talks
PLA Military Governance
The Chinese Communist Party expelled former Central Military Commission vice-chairman Zhang Youxia and former Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the party and armed forces following investigations into disloyalty and factionalism. The senior purges reflect political re-alignment within the People's Liberation Army command structure without altering baseline operational posture in the Taiwan Strait. News - South China Morning Post · 21 Sep 2026Former top PLA generals expelled from Communist Party for factionalism and disloyalty
Assessment
Bilateral US-China summit preparations and potential delays to American arms packages create temporary diplomatic maneuvering room while military drills and persistent maritime transits maintain baseline regional tension.
- 2026-09-21
Royal New Zealand Navy vessels transit the Taiwan Strait
Royal New Zealand Navy frigate HMNZS Te Mana and replenishment tanker HMNZS Aotearoa transited the Taiwan Strait.
- 2026-09-16
Conservative Genta Koja wins Okinawa gubernatorial election
Conservative candidate Genta Koja defeated incumbent Denny Tamaki in Okinawa's gubernatorial election, ending twelve years of opposition to Japanese defense expansion.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
4 more
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21.2/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.