← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian long-range strikes deployed the new Pelican ballistic missile against oil refining and industrial facilities in Moscow and Voronezh regions. Kyiv Post · 20 Sep 2026Did Ukraine Use Pelican Ballistic Missile to Strike Moscow?Meduza.io · 20 Sep 2026On the third day of Russia’s parliamentary elections, Moscow came under what its mayor called the largest Ukrainian drone attack on the capital. Officials reported two deaths.The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 20 Sep 2026Ukraine war latest: Zelensky approves 'new long-range operations' in response to Russian strikes
- Russian forces launched 172 attack drones and missiles overnight against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and municipal areas. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 20 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill at least 8, wound 30 across Ukraine, as a child injured in Sept. 19 strike dies in hospitalUkrinform · 21 Sep 2026ADF neutralizes Banderol missile, 147 Russian drones used to attack Ukraine overnight
- Ukrainian airstrikes destroyed Russian military logistics bridges near Polohy to impede offensive movements toward Orikhiv. Ukrainska Pravda · 21 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces destroy bridges near Polohy used by Russia for offensive towards Orikhiv – videoUkrinform · 21 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike Russian Kasta radar, UAV control post in Donetsk region
- Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Kasta radar system and a drone control post in occupied Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainska Pravda · 21 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike costly Russian Kasta radar for second time in a monthUkrinform · 21 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike Russian Kasta radar, UAV control post in Donetsk region
- Russian drone strikes hit a mobile postal van in Sumy region delivering supplies to border communities. Ukrinform · 21 Sep 2026Russian strikes in Sumy region leave two killed, three injured over past dayKyiv Post · 20 Sep 2026Russian Drone Strikes Ukrposhta Mobile Branch in Sumy
Deep Strike Asymmetry
Ukrainian forces deployed the new domestic Pelican ballistic missile alongside cruise missiles and drones against industrial and refining targets in Moscow and Voronezh regions to disrupt military fuel supplies. Russian forces directed long-range drones against civilian and municipal infrastructure, striking gas stations in Zhytomyr Oblast, a mobile postal van in Sumy Oblast, a monastery in Kherson Oblast, and residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia. Kyiv Post · 20 Sep 2026Did Ukraine Use Pelican Ballistic Missile to Strike Moscow?Kyiv Post · 20 Sep 2026Russian Drone Strikes Ukrposhta Mobile Branch in SumyMeduza.io · 20 Sep 2026On the third day of Russia’s parliamentary elections, Moscow came under what its mayor called the largest Ukrainian drone attack on the capital. Officials reported two deaths.
Tactical Frontline Interdiction
Ukrainian Air Assault forces executed targeted airstrikes near Polohy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, destroying logistics bridges utilized by Russian units for offensive operations toward Orikhiv. In occupied Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian precision strikes destroyed a $60 million Russian Kasta low-altitude radar station and an operational UAV ground control post near Dniproenerhiia. Ukrainska Pravda · 21 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike costly Russian Kasta radar for second time in a monthUkrainska Pravda · 21 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces destroy bridges near Polohy used by Russia for offensive towards Orikhiv – videoUkrinform · 21 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces strike Russian Kasta radar, UAV control post in Donetsk region
Defense Procurement and Industrial Production
The United States Army awarded a $10.64 million contract to Ukrainian manufacturer Skyeton for Raybird reconnaissance UAVs, marking Ukraine's first major military drone export to the US military. Concurrently, Russian state enterprise Rosatom initiated plans to expand a carbon-fiber production facility in Tatarstan to support annual domestic manufacturing of up to 28,000 additional Shahed-type attack drones. Kyiv Post · 21 Sep 2026US Army Buys Battle-Tested Ukraine Observation DroneKyiv Post · 21 Sep 2026Russia Plans 28,000 More Shahed-Type Drones a Year as It Expands Carbon-Fiber Plant
Assessment
Open interstate war continues at maximum intensity across strategic and tactical domains without diplomatic engagement or ceasefire agreements.
- 2026-09-21
Ukraine debuts Pelican ballistic missile in strikes on Russian facilities
Ukrainian long-range strikes deployed the new Pelican ballistic missile against industrial and oil refining facilities in Russia's Moscow and Voronezh regions.
- 2026-09-16
Ukrainian drone strike kills Russian Major General Anton Grunis
A Ukrainian drone strike killed Russian Major General Anton Grunis in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
4 more
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 96.1/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 96.1/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.